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ANZ Bank's Australian Property Outlook

The ANZ Bank's Australian Property Outlook shows that despite rising interest rates, economic growth is expected to return to `trend' by the second half of 2010 buoyed by record population growth, a lift in dwelling construction and strong mining and infrastructure investment.

Capital growth and median dwelling prices - Rpdata.com/Rismark, April 2010

Sydney$519,000 12.3%
Melbourne$480,000 19.3%
Brisbane$437,000 6.5%
Adelaide$385,000 9.1%
Perth$475,000 7.5%
Darwin$480,000 19.7%
Canberra$540,000 14.7%
National$455,000 12.7%
Hobart*$325,000 8.3%
 
Source: RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index based on capital growth to Feb 2010
 
Comment: Darwin has probably peaked. Canberra and Melbourne are close to the top of the housing cycle.  Perth and Hobart are experiencing declining rates of growth. Brisbane and Adelaide may have bottomed. Sydney is already well into upswing phase of the housing cycle.
 
Recommendation: Buy Sydney property because it has growth momentum, but avoid the 'interest rate sensitive' mortgage belt where pricing will be affected by rising interest rates/foreclosures but growth will be slower. Premium property prospects best due to long term history of outperformance and currently, an acute undersupply. Buy Brisbane or Adelaide if less risk averse. Bargain buying opportunites exist in these markets but no-one rings a bell at the bottom of the cycle and recovery could be prolonged due to uncertain time frames for new infrastructure delivery and substantial debt levels in Qld plus weaker population growth in SA.
 
Compare April figures with those from November 09....


Capital growth and median dwelling prices

Australian capital cities, first eleven months of 2009 :

  • Sydney values ↑ 11.6% ($475,000)
  • Melbourne values ↑ 17.0% ($450,000)
  • Brisbane values ↑ 6.9% ($426,750)
  • Adelaide values ↑ 5.7% ($355,500)
  • Perth values ↑ 6.5% ($460,000)
  • Darwin values ↑ 17.9% ($445,000)
  • Canberra values ↑ 10.9% ($461,500)
  • Hobart values ↑ 14.2% ($310,050) (Hobart data is based on final October figures)

QLD's record migration - Australian Bureau of Statistics, year ending 30 June 2009

Net overseas migration to Queensland was 54,410 persons in the year ending 30 June 2009. The figure for the latest 12-month period was the highest annual figure recorded since the introduction of the estimated resident population series by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 1971